5 min read • Published 28 Jan 25
Impact of Union Budget on Stock Market
Table of Contents
Many traders and investors are changing plans and expecting the impact of the budget on the stock market when announced. Though it would seem reasonable to build plans on predictive indications, the inherent volatility of the stock market means that they often contradict simple forecasts. Past events, like election expectations and unreliable polls, show this lesson clearly.
Analysing the Impact of Budget on the Stock Market
The impact of Union Budget on Indian stock market extends far beyond a single announcement. Each policy change can trigger varied responses, influencing sectors differently and thereby investor decisions.
1. Government Spending and Sector Performance
Government Budgets sometimes pay large sums for healthcare, infrastructure, defense, and education. Increased government expenditure in these sectors generates chances for connected companies to flourish.
Infrastructure Budgets can help in cement, steel, and construction-related services. Medical equipment or enterprises offering e-learning solutions could gain from funding either education or healthcare.
2. Tax Policies and Corporate Profits
As already mentioned, investor attitude and corporate profitability are highly influenced by Budget tax policies. Reduced taxes increase profits, and so drive rising stock values. On the other hand, tax increases lower firm profitability, which forces investors to rethink company values.
If a tax cut helps the automotive industry, for instance, associated stock indices like Auto or consumer discretionary would experience a rise. Higher disposable income from lower personal income taxes can stimulate consumer spending, benefiting the retail and consumer goods industries.
3. Changes in LTCG/STCG
Reforms in long-term capital gain (LTCG) or short-term capital gain (STCG) typically generate excitement around Budget impact on share market. In the 2024-25 Union Budget, the government increased the LTCG tax rate from 10% to 12.5% and the STCG tax rate from 15% to 20%.
If the government changes the holding time or lower tax rates, this might draw more long-term investors, increasing participation in important indices such as Nifty 50 and Sensex. In this sense, changes in this field increase market depth and help general equity investment.
4. Interest Rates and Monetary Policy
Budgetary choices can affect monetary policy, particularly regarding central banks’ changes in interest rates. Government borrowing to cover Budget deficits can pressure interest rates, influencing consumer and company borrowing rates.
Changes in interest rates influence borrowing behavior, investment choices, and the valuation of financial assets—including stocks. As such, changes in interest rates brought about by budgetary measures can majorly affect stock market volatility and returns.
5. Fiscal Deficits and Market Confidence
Constant fiscal deficits brought on by government expenditures that are too high compared to income can erode market confidence and cause questions about sovereign creditworthiness. In the 2024-25 Budget, the government aimed to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 4.5% for the following financial year, striving to balance economic growth with fiscal responsibility.
Investors would seek better government bond yields to offset rising credit risk, perhaps crowding out of equity investment. Investors may favorably see budgetary initiatives to lower fiscal deficits through austerity or revenue-raising strategies, strengthening market confidence and increasing stock prices.
Understanding the Budget impact on share market, it’s essential to first understand the broader factors that set the course for its influence.
Why is the Budget Important?
Shaping the nation’s financial future, the Union Budget acts as a pivotal force for economic progress. Here’s why it holds significance:
1. Effective Allocation of Financial Resources: Channels investments into critical sectors like healthcare, education, and defense while curbing excess expenditures.
2. Reduction of Poverty and Unemployment: Promotes job creation and welfare through rural schemes, subsidies, and development projects.
3. Ensuring Equality in Income and Wealth Distribution: Uses progressive taxation and welfare programs to address income inequality.
4. Clarity and Allocation of Tax Structures: Refines structures, revises slabs, and enables smarter financial decision-making.
Conclusion
The impact of Union Budget on Indian stock market, affects sector performance, business profits, interest rates, inflation expectations, and market attitude. One must consider budgetary changes and evaluate how they will affect investment plans and stock market dynamics.
Navigating difficult market conditions and making wise investment decisions in an often shifting economic environment depends on an awareness of the complex interaction between budgetary measures and the stock market.
Q: Which stocks will benefit from a budget?
Industries gaining from the Union Budget typically see policy support or higher allocations. Sectors like healthcare, EVs, and construction often benefit from investments or incentives announced by the government.
Q: What is the impact of the public Budget?
By controlling government expenditure and income, the public budget affects economic stability by different ways.
- Policy changes directly affect sectors, including infrastructure, social welfare, and businesses.
- Budgetary tax adjustments impact personal income by changing income tax liability or deductions.
- Bettering public services, increasing employment possibilities, and controlling commodity pricing to improve consumer affordability indirectly stimulate economic development.
Q: How does monetary policy affect the stock market?
Through control of interest rates and credit availability, monetary policy greatly influences the stock market. Higher rates raise borrowing costs, reducing profits and slowing growth, which can lower stock values. Lower rates boost profitability, investor confidence, and stock prices.
Q: Which shares will grow after the budget?
Sectors that get more support or funding might do better. It could include areas like infrastructure, renewable energy, or rural development. Consumer-focused companies might also gain if demand increases.
Q: What happens to the stock market if the RBI increases the repo rate?
Borrowing becomes more expensive for businesses. This can slow down growth and reduce profits. Investors might feel cautious, and stock prices could dip in response.
